Probability of Thrown sticks in Senet

This Nugget has been written by Buddha on 23 May at 10:33AM

Category: Senet

1. The rules say "four sticks are thrown" which may mean the fifth stick is never thrown shows color (keeps you from getting a zero)
2. The rules also say "Each stick that falls color-up counts as one point, and the player moves by 5 points if neither stick falls color-up". They must mean if NO stick falls color up. So that means that the fifth stick not thrown is always a non-color unless the four sticks thrown are non-color and in that case they all end up with color. I haven't checked--do all 5 sticks show color or none of them when you get that rare 5?
3. If we go with the second scenario, then getting a four and a five are equally likely (.5)^4 = 6.25% -- once every 16 throws or so.
4. There are 4 ways of getting one color and 4 ways of getting 3 colors on a toss -- 25% each
5. There are 6 ways of getting two colors so the probability of getting a 3 is 6/16 = .375.

So the Probabilities (as I calculate them) are:

Roll Probability

5 6.25%
4 6.25%
3 25%
2 37.5%
1 25%

100%
 
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Nugget Comments
A Graphical Repesentation

Posted on 22 Dec at 1:00AM by 12-16

Here is a graphical representation of what Buddha wrote.

CCCC, CCCU, CCUC, CCUU
CUCC, CUCU, CUUC, CUUU
UCCC, UCCU, UCUC, UCUU
UUCC, UUCU, UUUC, UUUU

C stands for Colored and U stands for Uncolored.

1 is represented by CUUU, UCUU, UUCU or UUUC.
Probability - 4/16 or 0.25 or 25%

2 is represented by CCUU, CUCU, CUUC, UCCU, UCUC or UUCC.
Probability - 6/16 or 0.375 or 37.5%

3 is represented by CCCU, CCUC, CUCC or UCCC.
Probability - 4/16 or 0.25 or 25%

4 is represented by CCCC.
Probability - 1/16 or 0.0625 or 6.25%

5 is represented by UUUU.
Probability - 1/16 or 0.0625 or 6.25%

I had never heard of Senet before coming to this site, and I'm liking it as much as Checkers!