When you're bidding, what's in the Skat can really matter.

Usually you need a card or two to help make your contract, but sometimes there are cards you don't want. For instance if you bid 33 and you're without 2 (missing Jack of Clubs and Jack of Spades), and you want to play Spades, getting either of those Jacks in the Skat would ruin your bid. (Getting both Jacks would be fine if you were that lucky.)

So I calculated a probability table (and checked it against references). The table shows the probability of getting 1 or 2 needed cards in the Skat. For instance, if you need any of 5 different cards, you have about a 41% chance of getting one of them and and 4% chance of getting both. If only one card will do, your chances are just about 9%. Bad odds.

If there are cards you must avoid, subtract from 100. In the example above, either one of two cards will ruin you. Your chances of NOT getting any one of two cards is 100-17.75 or 82.25%. Pretty good odds. (Your chances of striking it rich and getting BOTH cards is less than half a percent. Don't bet on it.)

Try a couple of examples and you'll see how it's done. Knowing the odds is extremely useful.

I do hope the table formats legibly. It is set up with a fixed font so results will vary from browser to browser.

If you want to know the theory behind the table, I can email you my calculations. Send me a message. Meanwhile I wish you "Gut Blatt!"


Good %Get-1 %Get-2

1 9.09 0.00 
2 17.75 0.43 
3 25.97 1.30 
4 33.77 2.60 
5 41.13 4.33 
6 48.05 6.49 
7 54.55 9.09 
8 60.61 12.12 
9 66.23 15.58 
10 71.43 19.48 
11 76.19 23.81 
12 80.52 28.57 
13 84.42 33.77 
14 87.88 39.39 
15 90.91 45.45 
16 93.51 51.95 
17 95.67 58.87 
18 97.40 66.23 
19 98.70 74.03 
20 99.57 82.25 
21 100.00 90.91 
22 100.00 100.00